Louisiana Politics Everyday

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Jindal Remains In Control

Citing an internal poll released from his campaign, State Sen. Walter Boasso said "people know that there’s going to be a governor’s race." So, you spent $1.3 million in television ads to let people know that there will be an election this fall? Boasso boasted that his message was beginning to resonate with voters and pointed to his rise from 6 points in May to 21 points in July. At a little under $100,000 per point, another $3 million should be able to buy this thing, right?

The only question released was, "If the October election for governor were held today and the candidates were — Walter Boasso, a Democrat, Foster Campbell, a Democrat, Bobby Jindal, a Republican, and John Georges, a Republican, for whom would you vote?"

Boasso 21%
Campbell 6%
Jindal 52%
Georges 1%
Undecided 21%

Although we do trust the end result (Anzalone-Liszt is a reputable Dem operation), the question above is actually the least important in what was probably a 30-question survey. At this stage, it is more important to know things like name saturation, image (positive vs. negative), and voter intensity (lean, likely, definite).

Our educated guess is that Boasso's newfound support puts his name recognition at no more than 60% statewide with a very low intensity. Because he has chosen to end his early media buy, the support shown in this survey will soon evaporate. He has shown that he is willing to pour whatever it takes into a solid second place finish.

Jindal, on the other hand, is a known commodity. With a statewide name recognition that hovers in the 95% range and a intense base (41% definite Jindal when polled against Breaux this spring), Bobby is positioned well to win outright in October. Although two other self-financed candidates have promised to break the bank, Jindal has matched them with a 2Q total that "has reached their goals" and is rumored to be in the $10 million range. A war chest of that size will launch a campaign the likes Louisiana has never seen (Vitter only raised $7.8 million in 2004).

The race begins after Labor Day, however for all intents and purposes, this one is already over. OrN makes the bold July prediction - Professor Plum in the Kitchen with the Rope, make that Jindal in the Primary with 54%.

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